This past week has seen elections in two similar countries- both are developing countries in Asia ranking in the top 30 global economies, both are deeply troubled democracies, and both have strongman leaders who have held power for incredible shares of time and have taken their countries in a more authoritarian direction. 

Most of the media attention has been focused on the first, the Republic of Turkey. Erdogan’s failure to gain 50% of the vote will lead to a runoff which is expected later this month between him and his strongest challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu and while this is a historic challenge to his rule, he may narrowly retain power. But little has been focused on the second country, Thailand. 

The Kingdom Thailand held elections on the 14th of May, 2023 for its parliament. Thailand is a constitutional monarchy with a parliamentary system, meaning that its parliament and the parties that compose it will then form a coalition and elect a Prime Minister as the Head of Government. Thailand is a relatively new and unstable democracy, with violent clashes between the government and protestors, as well as coups by the often conservative military (which has been a powerful force in Thai politics). 

Thailand’s current Prime Minister is Prayuth Chan-O-Cha, a former military General who came to power when he and the army toppled a civilian government and imposed five years of military rule on the country. In 2019, the military permitted elections to the Thai parliament and reinstated civilian rule- but Prayuth Chan-O-Cha and his pro-military Palang Pracharath party won the 2019 elections and formed a coalition government, allowing him to extend his stint as Thailand’s head of state for another 4 years. Chan-O-Cha stood in the most recent election hoping to regain his position of power, this time under the United Thai Nation party. 

However, he and his United Thai Nation party, as well as the various other conservative and pro-military parties were soundly routed when the results of the election were released, leaving the conservative military regime humiliated. 

Coming in first was the Move Forward Party, with 36% of the vote and 152 seats in the Thai Parliament, with a shocking 71 seat gain. The Move Forward Party is a grassroots social democratic and progressive in Thailand, primarily led by the country’s youth. Its leader Pita Limjaroenrat (a Harvard and MIT grad), is expected to be the country’s next Prime Minister. 

Following in a tight second is the Pheu Thai Party, a centrist liberal party and previously the main opposition party to Palang Pracharath, the military, and Prime Minister Chan-O-Cha. The party was the favorite to win the election, but in a massive upset came in with less seats and vote share than the Move Forward Party, winning only 141 seats to Pheu Thai’s 152, and only just above 27% of the vote. Its leader, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, is an heir to a major Thai political dynasty, including two former Thai Prime Ministers 

Coming in third is the Bhum Jai Thai Party, part of Prime Minister Chan-O-Cha’s current coalition. It won 70 seats. The Bhumjaithai was originally predicted to act as a kingmaker for a potential Move Forward Party coalition, but won’t for reasons we will get into later. 

The backbone of the military establishment, the United Thai Nation and the Palang Pracharath Parties won 36 and 41 seats respectively, not nearly enough to form a coalition. The Democrat Party, another component of the present military coalition and another potential kingmaker, won 24 seats. 

A dozen other minor parties like the conservative Charthaipattani and the Malay minority interest Prachachat party also won small numbers of seats, but not more than 10 per party. 

The Move Forward Party remains the face of bold change in Thailand. The party wants to aid Thailand in the democratization process and gradually remove the military from positions of power, as well as other typical social democratic policies such as dissolving monopolies, modernizing education, and expanding the social safety net. However, perhaps most symbolically and significantly, the country wants to reform Section 112 of the Thai Penal Code, known as the Lese Majesty Law, which makes insulting or criticizing Thailand’s Monarch or any other member of its royal family a criminal offense. This code has been used frequently to crack down on dissent and imprison activists across Thailand in recent years. Although the Thai royal family itself has little power or influence over Thai politics, a broad interpretation of the law can often be leveraged by the military in order to crack down on dissent. 

The question remains whether or not the military will allow Pita Limjaroenrat to assume his rightful place as Prime Minister. Although the military no longer has absolute control over the government, a series of tools may allow them to keep him and his party out of power. The Thai parliament is divided into two houses: the elected House of Representatives, and the appointed Senate. The Senate is supposed to be a nonpartisan body in which none of the members belong to political parties and can objectively analyze policy. However, the decision on who is appointed to the Senate is entirely the responsibility of the Thai Army, and so in practice the Senate just bends to the will of Thailand’s military, meaning that they would likely be hostile to any coalition that Limjaroenrat is able to form. Additionally, the Prime Minister of Thailand must be approved by a majority vote of both houses of parliament, including all members of the 500 person House and the 250 person Senate. This makes it such that even though Move Forward and Pheu Thai have won over 60% of the seats and over 65% of the popular vote for the House of Representatives, they need 376 seats in the House of Representatives to make sure that the military backed senate and their allies in the House can't overturn the election results. 

The proposed Move Forward coalition, composed of Move Forward, Pheu Thai, and six other minor parties, has failed to meet the 376 threshold. At present, they only command 313 seats. The natural coalition partner, which would push them over the 376 threshold is the aforementioned Bhum Jai Thai Party. However, the Bhumjaithai have refused to join with the Move Forward Coalition. The Bhumjaithai are a conservative party, and consequently have lobbied to uphold Section 112 of Thailand’s penal code and have refused to join this possible coalition due to the anti-Section 112 position of its member parties. Move Forward has attempted to extend a hand to the Bhumjaithai by recently saying that members of the governing coalition need not support the amendment of Section 112 in a bid to draw Bhum Jai Thai Party, but this does not appear to have enticed the Bhumjaithai as of the writing of this peace. 

The main strategy of Mr. Limjaroenrat at the moment seems to be attempting to appeal to the various Senators by asking them to respect democracy. Move Forward has immense popular political support and legitimacy. In fact, the massive waves of protests that challenged the regime of Prime Minister Chan-O-Cha in 2020-2021 were in part sparked due to the fact that Move Forward’s predecessor, Future Forward, was disbanded by the Constitutional Court. If the Senate fails to approve Limjaroenrat’s government, it is likely that enormous protests would erupt as a result, which may make some Senators think twice before dismissing his government. 

However, even if all of this works out for Mr. Limjaroenrat, there is still a large chance that he is disqualified from holding office due to a pending complaint lodged against him with the country’s Electoral Coalition, saying that he improperly disclosed shares held in a media company, iTV. The Constitutional Court and the Electoral Commission have both been used by the establishment as tools and obstacles for dissenting and anti establishment voices, so there is legitimate risk for him if this complaint moves forward. However, Mr. Limjaroenrat denies any wrongdoing. 

With the number of seats won and the number of Senators who would support them, it is technically possible that the United Thai Nation Party and the Palang Pracharath Party could team up with their old coalition partners, the Democrat Party and the Bhumjaithai, and then use that bloc as well as the military controlled Senate to force through a minority government. However, this would make governing extremely tricky, and it is unknown whether this would even be a plausible coalition. The reason for Prime Minister Chan-O-Cha’s departure from the Palang Pracharath Party for the United Thai Nation Party is not fully known, and may potentially have resulted from infighting within the party. 

With complex government procedures favoring the establishment but simultaneously a disorganized establishment, it remains to be seen whether or not the will of the Thai people will be respected and whether or not Mr. Limjaroenrat will be elected Prime Minister. For now, the future of the nation remains uncertain.